Stocks across industries have been experiencing an upward momentum since the beginning of Q3 2023. Some stocks have completely recouped the losses and reached their high levels observed in 2022. Technology, Beverages, and Semi-conductors stocks including Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL), Meta (NYSE: META), Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Tesla(NYSE :TSLA), The Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Pepsi Cola (NYSE: PEP) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) have been delivering strong returns in Q3 2023, similar to those in the year 2021 and Q1 2022. The oil industry has remained resilient during the period, with Crude Oil (CL=F) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) around the levels reached in late 2022. Banking and Pharmaceuticals stocks have remained almost flat or experienced some headwinds. The stock market indices have shown similar trends and patterns. The stock market appears to face off the previous increasing market volatility, inflation, world events, and other dynamics since late Q2 2022. AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the Machine Learning Time Series capabilities, including Support Vector Machine, and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™, has looked at the trends of the stock price of AAPL vs the stock prices of 20 selected companies and market indices between Q4 2021 and Q3 2023 and came up with insights and projections on the dynamics. The insights are presented below (for disclaimer and terms, check AroniSoft website).
A little bit of the usual investment research before coming back to AroniSmart™'s findings.
Apple Momentum
Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL) has consistenly delivered strong returns since 2017. Following the deep analysis of early December 2021 (AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Apple (AAPL) and Exxon (XOM) Stock Performance and Momentum Analysis with Support Vector Machine and Dominance Analysis in Q3 2022), Apple stock has remained resilient, despite increased volatility in some periods, especially in Q2 2022 and Q4 2022.
As of early Q3 2023, Apple stock dynamics appeared to have moved beyond or factored in the factors that were affecting the overall market in late 2022, early Q2023, such as the uncertainty on the job market, the growing inflation, the economic policies, and the world events. Since Q1 2023, in line of the trends of the entire stock market, Apple Stock price started to gain momentum. The dynamics were driven by factors such as strong policies against inflation, lessening worries of a looming economic recession, limited focus on the world events, and economic policies, including rising interest rates to fight off inflation. Meanwhile, like most other industries, the oil sector has stopped fueling inflation.
In recent weeks, starting with the end of Q2 2023, Apple Stock strongly came back, with a gain of 15.46% in the last month. The factors impacting Apple stock performance in Q3 2022 appear to be similar to those that fueled the momentum in 2021 : dynamics within the TECH sectors in general, Apple's innovations including the launch of new products, and continued rumors about Apple investment in EV and other innovations.
Since the beginning of Y2023, Apple stock is up 57%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is up nearly 37%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 19% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), is up nearly 7%. In the same period, the oil industry has has remained flat, with strong declines in late Q1 2023 and in Q2 2023.
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New Products at Apple
Since 2017, Apple has heavily invested in new technologies and products, including new chips and 5G. The innovations have been the center of Apple's performance and projections.
Beyond A15 chip, a faster system-on-a-chip in the next iPhones, Apple has been driving the adoption of 5G technoolgies in all its iPhones. In February 2021, iPhone 12 Pro Max was named the most popular 5G smartphone in the United States of America. In the USA, iPhone 12 models feature ultra-fast mmWave 5G in the US. It is belived that the upcoming iPhone 13 models could expand mmWave into most countries.
In December 2020, media reports confirmed that Apple was working on EV and targeting 2024 for production, with a more advanced battery technology. Independent EV remains a distant reality for Apple, but there are also rumors that Apple may partner with a car maker to accelerate the timelines.
Since January 2021, Apple has released M2 Chips, 24-inch iMac, new iPads, new Mac Mini, the new Apple TV, AirTags, AirPods Pro, Vision Pro Headset operated by visionOS, macOS 14, known as MacOS Sonoma, iOS 17, iPadOS 17, tvOS17, watchOS10, and more. In the very near future, it is expected that Apple will continue to release new iPhones, MacBook Pros, and probably many more products built on the latest technologies.
Just before the WWDC 2023 event started, expectations were very high and the stock markets responded positively. Apple stock reached a record high of $184.95. Since then, it has even gone higher, reaching $195.83.
Apple vs Stocks from TECH and Other Industries
Based on all these factors, over the last years and quarters, AAPL has consistently outperformed several technology companies and other stocks. Although in 2022, Apple, as many TECH stocks and all market indices went on a downward trend, the trend was halted in early 2023. Since then, the stock price is gradually going up, while the price of oil products and stocks of pharmaceuticals and banking have remained flat or gradually declining.
AroniSmart™ team analyzed Apple's stock performance dynamics, leveraging the Support Vector Machine and Dominance Analysis capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered interesting insights, as shown below. The team analyzed the performance of AAPL vs 9 other internally selected stocks from December 20, 2021 to July 28, 2023.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ Analysis: Apple continued to exhibit behaviors similar to those of several stocks, but with a higher momentum.
From the analysis, it was found that most of these stocks basically follow similar trends. Also, they are all impacted by the market conditions. However, the analysis found important nuances.
The key findings highlight with a positive view: most of the stocks studied had positive reverse trend over the period or remain resilient, except for oil (XOM and Crude-Oil index) and Pharmaceuticals. Like the general stock market, they experienced a positive momentum in Q3-Q4 2021, followed by a slowdown and high volatility in Year 2022 and early Q1 2023. Since then, the performance has improved. Trendwise, since Q1 2023, the stocks appear to be positively reacting to news and economic policies. Hence, uncertainty and worries about the economy and volatility have been reduced. Only a very few stocks continue to trend in the opposite direction.
Figure 1: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Feb 2023- Jul 2023 -- Training Data model.
Figure 2: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Feb 2023- Jul 2023 -- Test Data model.
Over 2021 Apple (AAPL) built on an earlier momentum, beating most of the stocks under the AroniSmart study.
By July of 2021 most stocks were above the average Q1 2021 levels. In early Q2 2021, Apple's momentum was significantly impacted by the market conditions. In late May 2021, it bounced back (see chart below). Since then, the Apple stock has maintained the momentum.
Figure 3: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Dec 2021- Feb 2023 -- Training Data Step Forecast model estimates
Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Feb 2023- Jul 2023 -- Test Data Step Estimate model.
Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Feb 2023- Jul 2023 -- Training Data Future Estimat.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ modelling shows the prices of the stocks that appear to mirror each other: a high opening for the stocks that tends to lead a decline or slow down in Apple's closing price and a high opening for the stocks that tends to lead an increase or growth in Apple's closing price. Late Q2 - Early Q3 dynamics appear to positively impact Apple's prices, Q1- Q2 2022 appears to have been challenging.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ analysis, using Support Vector Machine modeling, below shows the weights of the different stocks, with ABNB, AMD, BAC, CL=F, DJI, GC=F, HD, JPM, LCID, META, NIO, PFE, RUT, SI=F, UBER, Z, and WMT being on the negative side, and AURC, C, GOOG, GSPC, IXIC, LOW, MRNA, NVDA, PEP, SOFI, TNX, TSLA, XOM, and ZM on positive side.
Figure 5: Apple Stock Price Dynamics - AroniSmart Support Vector Machine Analysis Results on the Period Between December 2022 and July 2023
AroniSmartLytics™ Dominance Analysis confirms Support Vector Machine results: Apple momentum impacted in 2021-2023 and aligned with the momentum of most of other stocks.
AroniSmart™ team analyzed Apple's performance dynamics using Dominance Analysis capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered insights confirming the performance dynamics of AAPL vs 9 other internally selected stocks from December 2021 to July 2023. See below:
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
For more on AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest capabilities, visit AroniSoft web site by clicking here. AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence ™ are available on Apple's App Store.
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